I’m Starting To Feel Sorry For Lawrence Yun
April 9, 2008
“At least the bottom appears to already have occurred” Lawrence Yun - February 15, 2007
What’s a guy to do? The National Association of Realtors says pending U.S. home sales fell to the lowest reading on record in February, signaling the housing market distress is not yet over.
It must be tough representing a trade organization that seemingly is in the cross-hairs of someone everytime you turn around. If it’s not the DOJ then it’s CNBC, Fox News, or some other naysayer.
Time and time again when the wolves come calling, it’s Lawrence Yun who gets trotted out. Enough is enough people. Everyone, including yours truly, needs to get off this guy’s back. If Jim Cramer can’t get it right how in the world do you expect Yun to have the answers?
Face it, we are in the midst of arguably the worst housing market in history. We’re at war. We’re in an election year. Oil prices are staggering. Gold is through the roof. In a normal economy it’s not a precise science in making projections. Making accurate forecasts given the aforementioned variables coupled with those not mentioned must make it very difficulty to predict the future.
Yun and the NAR have been widely panned by the media and industry critics for faulty numbers and Yun himself has been ridiculed for being a mere pawn of the NAR. Of course he is! He is not an objective third party prognosticator. He knows where his bread is buttered. He has to put out fires for the NAR. He is more spokesman than economist.
So let’s leave him alone. What’s the guy to do? Yun has sounded like John Kerry more than once. He has flip flopped just as much. Wonder if Yun voted for the war before he voted against it? Just a thought, but I doubt it. But Yun did see the bottom of the housing market coming more than once. Let’s not go back and list all of his inaccurate and erroneous projections. It’s not worth it.
Yun, as the NAR’s Jimmy the Greek, is here for our amusement. Let’s just get used to it. Another thing, no one has a crystal ball as to when the housing market is turning around…well maybe with the exception of Jamie Dimon and he’s not telling us his secrets. (By the way..did Dimon just pull off the best “Make Money with Nothing Down Deal” in history or what??)
According to statistics released Tuesdayby the National Association of Realtors, an index of pending home sales fell 1.9 percent in February to 84.6, and was 24.9 percent lower than one year ago. Bloomberg News reported that the drop was just about twice the amount of that what was projected and expected.
Stop blaming Larry! He told you it was a crap shoot.
Lawrence Yun: February 19, 2008 - Forecasting is never perfect. Forecasts are bound to be off but the forecaster’s job is to make the best prognosis given the available information at the time. The readers should always view any forecast with caveat emptor.
We all should have realized it then that everything subsequent to that was basically a projection given to us by a Ouija Board. Finally Yun has grown tired of this blame game and has put his foot down once and for all. Enough is finally enough. You want to know when this housing market is going to turn around, you really want to know…are you sure? Well here’s your answer straight from the desk of Lawrence Yun.
“Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said. “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets. The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”
Now there is a definitive statement if there ever was. I would have expected nothing less from the man USA Today calls one of the top five economists in the world today.
I shudder to think who number 6 is. Oh yeah…I remember now, that went to Bruce Kasman of JPMorgan Chase, one of the guys who helped engineer Jamie Dimon’s purchase of Bear Stearns.
Now there’s a picture in contrast.
[…] We talked about two separate blog posts today. The first was a short, but sweet post by Greg Swann at Bloodhound Blog. Greg sees the writing on the wall and relays the message in true “Swann Style”™. The second post was by our own Barry C where he does the unthinkable and actually tells everyone “I’m Starting To Feel Sorry For Lawrence Yun.” […]
[…] I’m Starting To Feel Sorry For Lawrence Yun, by Barry Cunningham. […]
I keep saying that NAR needs to get out of the prediction business. For DC, he said there was a “near zero percent chance of a drop.” What economist would make such an EXTREME comment and then be wrong!